James Harden and the Cleveland Cavaliers are facing an existential crisis in the second round of the NBA playoffs, trailing the top-seeded Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference semifinals, 2-0. Who could have possibly seen this coming?
A lot of people, actually. Maybe everyone who has watched the entirety of Harden’s career, and anyone who has witnessed the whole Donovan Mitchell era in Cleveland.
Their marriage was supposed to cure what ailed both, only, as it turns out, adding a very good player with a sub-championship ceiling to a very good team with a sub-championship ceiling does not raise their ceilings any higher, no matter their talent.
Could the Cavaliers win Games 3 and 4 at home, even things up with the Pistons, and make this a series? I don’t have much confidence in Cleveland’s ability to win four of the next five games against Detroit’s defense — against a Pistons team that is riding a five-game win streak and a rising confidence level — but even if they were to salvage this series, what makes you believe the Cavs can survive two more rounds?
And that is a big deal, mostly because they traded Darius Garland — a 26-year-old two-time All-Star — for the 36-year-old Harden, and they appear no better for it.
Granted, the motivation behind the trade was the unreliable availability of Garland, who performed well when healthy down the stretch for the Los Angeles Clippers. And Harden has been available. It’s just that his playoff production is not consistent with his All-Star-level performance during the regular season, to put it most kindly.
More bluntly: Harden has nine field goals and 11 turnovers in Cleveland’s two losses to Detroit. It is the kind of disappointing that we have become accustomed to over the course of a postseason career that has now spanned six teams and 17 seasons.
Barring a comeback against the Pistons, the Cavaliers will lose in the second round of the playoffs for the third consecutive year, despite boasting Mitchell, Garland (or Harden), Evan Mobley (another All-NBA talent and the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year), Jarrett Allen (a one-time All-Star) and a cast of talented characters on the wing.
The team is built to win, and it has to a degree, but the Cavaliers can no longer convince themselves that minor tweaks to the roster are all they need to contend.
So, what to do, then? They have already lost Garland, who looks to be a franchise cornerstone for the Clippers. Harden holds a $42.3 million option for next season, when he will turn 37 years old. He presumably orchestrated his way to Cleveland in search of a new contract, but how could the Cavs possibly justify giving him one?
Lose him, though, and you lose the only real asset you gained in return for Garland.
The problems do not end there for Cleveland.
Mitchell is up for a maximum contract extension this summer, when he will only have one guaranteed year left on his current deal. (He holds a $53.8 million option for the 2027-28 season.) If he opts not to sign it, the questions will come: Does he want out? Could the Cavaliers lose him for nothing, too, if they do not act first and trade him?
Meanwhile, there is Mobley’s development, or lack thereof. We figured him for Kevin Garnett’s ability, only without all the intensity, which was probably too much to ask, and it turns out that player is not up for the physical challenge of playoff basketball. His nine points and one rebound in their Game 2 loss were alarming, to say the least.
We also figured Mobley for a valuable trade chip this summer, when Giannis Antetokounmpo will be on the market. That is the sort of move that could vault Cleveland into contention, only what will the Milwaukee Bucks make of Mobley’s stagnant development? They may have fielded more attractive offers already.
The Cavaliers are running out of options to salvage something beyond a second-round ceiling with this talented core, though there is one more: LeBron James. He is a free agent at season’s end. Could the Cavs convince him to make another run with them, this time on a mid-level exception deal, in pursuit of one last championship?
It is not out of the realm of possibility, but a 42-year-old James would bring with him his own set of questions. Is he really the missing piece? Can he withstand the rigors of another NBA season? Would he defer to Mitchell the same way he has deferred to Luka Dončić? Could all of their agendas coalesce in Cleveland over a single season?
Literally anything is possible for the Cavaliers this summer. They could emerge from it a reinforced contender or an unrecognizable roster. So, not only do they face a 2-0 hole in this series, they face the mounting pressure of uncertainty on the horizon.
