The Cincinnati Reds are an absolute wreck.
The Cincinnati Reds are 1.5 games out of a playoff spot.
The Cincinnati Reds pitching staff owns the single worst xERA in baseball (5.21).
The Cincinnati Reds are two games over .500.
The Cincinnati Reds have a team wRC+ of 87, fourth worst in baseball and ahead of only the 17-22 Boston Red Sox, last place New York Mets, and last place San Francisco Giants.
The Cincinnati Reds just lost eight straight games, including three straight as walk-offs.
The Cincinnati Reds just won yesterday, ending that losing streak.
The Cincinnati Reds have Chase Burns.
************************************************************************
The Cincinnati Reds have been without ace Hunter Greene all season, and without #2 Nick Lodolo for all but one start this year. They’ve lost their closer in Emilio Pagan and rotation depth with Brandon Williamson. Big slugging Eugenio Suarez has been out two weeks with an oblique, and wasn’t exactly their 49-homer superstar when healthy.
Andrew Abbott looks woefully mediocre.
The bats of Ke’Bryan Hayes and TJ Friedl look hopelessly washed as they near 30, the hope that Matt McLain ever regains his 2023 form has almost completely evaporated. So, too, has much of the expectation that Noelvi Marte will figure it out at the big league level, with him now firmly in the same AAAA bucket as Rece Hinds.
Despite that – despite all of that – the Reds have made it through one-quarter of the 2026 season with their heads above water, two games over the .500 mark on a Sunday morning with a chance to win a series against the Houston Astros on their docket for the afternoon.
And they owe a gargantuan portion of that to young Chase Burns.
************************************************************************
Burns, still just 23, has been the single most valuable pitcher in the National League so far in 2026 according to Baseball Reference (2.1 bWAR). His 2.11 ERA ranks 3rd in the NL among qualifying pitchers, his 47.0 IP perhaps even more valuable (and 10th overall in the league) given the troubles the rest of the Cincinnati rotation has heaped upon its overworked bullpen.
Most recently, though, you’ve seen a Burns that wasn’t just good, he was rise to the occasion good. When his team was bruised and battered after two bad losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend, he poured in a career-best 7.0 IP of scoreless ball for his club (even though the offense didn’t hold up their end of the bargain). One full turn of the rotation later, the Reds still hadn’t found a way to win a single game, and he poured in another gem with 6.0 IP of ER ball against Houston to help them finally, mercifully get back into the win column.
That’s a rock on which this team can lean. That’s a bona fide stopper within the rotation. That’s precisely the kind of part of a team that can almost singlehandedly redirect a team’s momentum, a cog this iteration of Reds need so badly right now it’s hard to understate.
If that proves to also make him a human reset button, perhaps yesterday is what gets the rest of this team out of the gutter. Perhaps him showing up unfazed, uninterrupted yesterday will help remind the dugout that they, too, can shelve the poor form of the last few weeks and walk into the 1st inning of today’s game with a clean slate.
And if Burns can continue to do that for another turn in the rotation, these Reds are going to get Geno back in the lineup. If Burns can do it for another handful of turns, they’ll get Pagan back, too. If he can help bridge them to early July, this Reds club will have Burns and Greene atop their rotation and not a team in the sport is going to want to face them back to back.
Saturday’s outing by Burns is a microcosm of just how vital to this team he has already become just 16 – yes, just sixteen – starts into his big league career. And if he keeps it up, he might just save this Cincinnati Reds season.
