Based on projected win totals from Las Vegas oddsmakers, the New Orleans Saints have the second-easiest 2026 schedule, according to Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com. The Saints sit just below the Detroit Lions, who rank as the easiest schedule in the NFL.
But how is a team’s strength of schedule determined in this model? “By leveraging projected win totals and current season data, Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule model provides a more accurate and insightful tool for assessing team schedules and forecasting performance,” Sharp wrote.
As Sharp noted, just two of the eight teams with the toughest schedules (the Texans and Rams) made the playoffs in 2025. Two notable teams on that list were the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings. As a result, the Saints, who have one of the easiest schedules, are far more likely to make the playoffs in 2026 than a team like the Carolina Panthers, who have the third-most-difficult schedule.
It’s important to note that, while this model has proven more accurate than others in the past, it’s not perfect. One play, one bounce of the football, and even one missed step can be the difference between winning and losing and between making the playoffs or not.
Saints opponents in 2026, projected Vegas win totals
* All projections were provided by SharpFootballAnalysis.com
- Arizona Cardinals: 4.5
- Atlanta Falcons (twice): 7.5
- Baltimore Ravens: 11.5
- Carolina Panthers (twice): 6.5
- Chicago Bears: 9.5
- Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5
- Cleveland Browns: 6.5
- Detroit Lions: 10.5
- Green Bay Packers: 10.5
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5
- Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
- New York Giants: 7.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (twice): 8.5
The Saints, though they hold the NFL’s second-easiest schedule, aren’t projected to finish with a winning season. Their 7.5-game win line would be a couple of games better than their six-win total in 2025. The NFL’s official schedule release is set for Thursday at 7 p.m. CT. The opponent the Saints will face in Paris, France, will be announced at 8 a.m. CT on Wednesday morning.
This article originally appeared on Saints Wire: NFL strength of schedule: Where do New Orleans Saints rank in 2026?
